Pandemic diary 77: We're still only 'at the beginning of the pandemic'

The magnificent cinnabar moth – killers of ragwort! – chilling on allotment teazel yesterday.

A disease modelling study from Imperial Collage London has estimated that without lockdown three million lives in Europe would have been lost, including 470,000 in the UK. The study ran up until the start of May when 130,000 had died in the 11 European countries assessed; and the UK had a death toll of 26,771.

I think we all know that, without us all staying home, the numbers could have been so much worse. But the buried intro to the story is that statistically, only a small proportion of people have actually been infected, and that means that we are still only "at the beginning of the pandemic".

Food for thought as we start to relax. And another reminder that it is yet to go through most of the population.

We're all individually on a spectrum of how we perceive the risks of Covid-19. Sometimes I feel like I've forgotten there is a global pandemic going on because even socialising at a distance has become normal and therefore less noticeable. Other times, I'm jumpy when someone else forgets and gets too near, or coughs and sneezes nearby.

I'm just glad it is summer here so we can meet up outside and that I don't have to go into a workplace where the risks need to be managed daily. The winter is going to be… difficult.

Thanks

Did I mention that I got to meet my three-month-old great nephew this week? I feel like I have missed so much of his development as he is already so different from a newborn, and it was hard not to be able to hold him and burble like a high-pitched loon. But it was also great to see my niece doing so well and looking so happy.

And how drunk do babies look when they are tired? Hilarious.

In other news, tonight I came home from the allotment – beans, cucumber, sweet potato and tomatillos now transplanted – to find the ineffable Battlecat snoozing on my beanbag.

I tried to explain allergies to him but the little fecker just wandered off and jumped over the fence. Between him spraying my ferns and lolling around on tables and chairs, and Clem chinning all obstacles, this is a most scented garden!

Battlecat chilling on the beanbag – earlier he spent a good 20 minutes rolling around on the table in the foreground. No respect! None!

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2 thoughts on “Pandemic diary 77: We're still only 'at the beginning of the pandemic'”

  1. A thought-provoking perspective. Yes,the lockdown is likely to have cut the total deaths so far by at least a factor of 10.
    Does that mean then that what we are calling a potential second wave is really just the 1st wave continuing after ‘interruption by lockdown’?

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